Russia is facing a wave of migration as many people leave the country due to fears of a new military draft before the government elections conclude. The anti-war Ark project reports that requests for urgent assistance and migration advice from Russia have increased nearly eightfold since the beginning of summer.
Government Elections and Draft Speculations
This increase in requests coincides with the State Duma elections, which are taking place from Friday to Sunday. Kremlin critics and several Western governments have accused Moscow of intending to announce a new draft to bolster its military forces in the war in Ukraine after these elections. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, has called the rumors about the draft "absurd," but independent Russian media have counted 17 official denials of an imminent draft since summer.
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New Wave of Migration and Crisis in the Neighborhood
Yan Slevitsky, a human rights activist and coordinator of the Ark project, stated that the current wave of migration is a result of experiences from 2022. He said, "Since mid-July, a wave of panic is forming in Russia related to the threat of a military draft and shortages of fuel and internet access." Many people are leaving the country before similar events occur again. Armenia is particularly facing a migration crisis and has recently announced that it is ready to assist Russians coming to the country.
According to reports, the number of daily requests for relocation assistance has increased from about 70 to 120. Searches on Yandex and Google for phrases like "how to leave" and "draft" have peaked. Preparations for a potential draft are already evident. Tens of thousands have received draft notifications, and an electronic registration for summons has been introduced, which automatically enforces exit bans at the time of notification issuance.
In early September, passport control officers in Krasnodar detained a 24-year-old resident from the Rostov region who was set to complete his military service in 2024 and presented him with a notification of exit prohibition. Daniil Nyunov, a former candidate for the Duma from Moscow, noted that if he had waited a few more days, he likely would not have been able to leave the country.
Fear of a military draft has also reached members of the elite and staff at draft offices. International reports indicate that officials have begun opening foreign bank accounts and transferring assets abroad. In early August, Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, warned of the risk of a draft in Russia, citing intelligence data. Kyiv has described the Kremlin's plan to draft several hundred thousand Russians by the end of the year as a rapid mobilization.
The main destinations for migrants are mostly visa-free countries: Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan. The exact scale of this current wave is unclear, but it is likely to be less than the exodus of 2022, when between 600,000 and 700,000 people left Russia just weeks after a partial draft was announced. This draft has never been officially canceled, and those who were drafted at that time are still serving.
A 28-year-old marketing specialist, who wished to remain anonymous for security reasons, said, "It’s very upsetting to leave Russia. My family lives here, my elderly grandparents are here. My daughter is also here and is still in her medical studies, and leaving her is very hard for me." The Russian Duma elections, taking place from September 18 to 20, only include parties that support Moscow's war in Ukraine.
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